Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2483 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 1

AA 2483 · HAV → MIA

departs 6:31 PM CDT · arrives 7:52 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 48h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

58% chance · ±5 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
38%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
11%
Cancelled
9%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 28 kt, 0.6 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MIA that day

↑ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ 6pm departures from HAV are usually not late

Weather at each end

HAV (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility3 mi Precip0.07 in

MIA (destination) Gusts28 kt Ceiling3,100 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.64 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2483 · HAV → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?