AA 2592 · MGA → MIA

departs 2:17 PM CST · arrives 6:07 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 16h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

64% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
34%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
28%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
14%
Cancelled
7%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.8 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MIA that day

↑ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MGA

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MGA (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MIA (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.79 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2592 · MGA → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?