Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2629 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 1

AA 2629 · MIA → AUS

departs 5:48 PM ET · arrives 7:54 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 AM ET · 57h before departure

Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?

58% chance · ±5 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to AUS?

On time or early
39%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
9%
Cancelled
7%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 28 kt, 1.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MIA that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 5pm departures from MIA are often late

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at AUS

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts29 kt Ceiling3,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip1.25 in

AUS (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2629 · MIA → AUS

Odds over time

How late will it get to AUS?