AA 2629 · SLC → MIA

departs 11:35 PM MT · arrives 5:59 AM ET

Forecast issued Sun 1:00 AM ET · 25h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

54% chance · ±10 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
45%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
23%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 1.0 in of rain forecast at SLC that day

↑ 0.8 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MIA that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ 11pm departures from SLC are usually not late

↓ SLC usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

SLC (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.98 in

MIA (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.78 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2629 · SLC → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?