Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2820 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 1 Tomorrow

AA 2820 · PHX → MSP

departs 6:55 PM MT · arrives 11:01 PM CT

Forecast issued Sat 2:00 AM ET · 44h before departure

Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±1 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MSP?

On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
21%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi, 1.8 in of rain forecast at PHX that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 6pm departures from PHX are often late

↓ MSP usually runs smoothly

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.3 mi Precip1.78 in

MSP (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling1,433 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2820 · PHX → MSP

Odds over time

How late will it get to MSP?