Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2873 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 1

AA 2873 · CLT → PDX

departs 6:17 PM ET · arrives 9:05 PM PT

Forecast issued Fri 2:00 PM ET · 53h before departure

Arrive at PDX more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PDX?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 6pm departures from CLT are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PDX

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PDX (destination) Gusts2 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2873 · CLT → PDX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PDX?