Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2941 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 1

AA 2941 · MIA → LAS

departs 9:23 PM ET · arrives 12:00 AM PT

Forecast issued Fri 9:00 PM ET · 49h before departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

64% chance · ±11 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAS?

On time or early
29%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
10%
Cancelled
20%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 28 kt, 0.6 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MIA that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 9pm departures from MIA are often late

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts29 kt Ceiling3,100 ft Visibility6 mi Precip1.29 in

LAS (destination) Gusts26 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.18 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2941 · MIA → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?