AA 2975 · MSP → ORD

departs 3:32 PM CT · arrives 5:17 PM CT

Forecast issued Sat 7:00 PM ET · 22h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±6 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ 3pm departures from MSP are often late

↓ Other factors

↓ MSP usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

MSP (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2975 · MSP → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?