Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 303 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 1 Tomorrow

AA 303 · MIA → GCM

departs 6:37 PM ET · arrives 8:24 PM EST

Forecast issued Sat 1:00 AM ET · 43h before departure

Arrive at GCM more than 15 minutes late?

58% chance · ±2 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to GCM?

On time or early
35%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
16%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 29 kt, 1.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MIA that day

↑ 6pm departures from MIA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Arrivals into GCM at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts29 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip1.29 in

GCM (destination) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 303 · MIA → GCM

Odds over time

How late will it get to GCM?