Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3148 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 1

AA 3148 · PHX → MIA

departs 4:42 PM MT · arrives 11:21 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 2:00 PM ET · 54h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

64% chance · ±5 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
34%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
10%
Cancelled
7%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 1.4 in of rain forecast at PHX that day

↑ Gusts to 29 kt, 1.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MIA that day

↑ 4pm departures from PHX are often late

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip1.44 in

MIA (destination) Gusts29 kt Ceiling3,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip1.25 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3148 · PHX → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?