Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3155 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 1

AA 3155 · CLT → ROC

departs 10:09 PM ET · arrives 12:07 AM ET

Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 52h before departure

Arrive at ROC more than 15 minutes late?

34% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ROC?

On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 10pm departures from CLT are often late

↑ This flight has been late 29% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT

↓ ROC usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ROC (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3155 · CLT → ROC

Odds over time

How late will it get to ROC?