Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3188 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 1

AA 3188 · ORD → CLT

departs 4:58 PM CT · arrives 7:55 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 2:00 PM ET · 53h before departure

Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?

44% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to CLT?

On time or early
56%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 4pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Arrivals into CLT at that hour are often late

↓ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at ORD that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

CLT (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3188 · ORD → CLT

Odds over time

How late will it get to CLT?