Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3208 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 1

AA 3208 · MBJ → MIA

departs 5:22 PM EST · arrives 7:15 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 1:00 PM ET · 53h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

64% chance · ±8 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
31%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
10%
Cancelled
16%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 29 kt, 1.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MIA that day

↑ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MBJ (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precipnone

MIA (destination) Gusts29 kt Ceiling3,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip1.25 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3208 · MBJ → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?