Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 323 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 1

AA 323 · BNA → MIA

departs 6:43 PM CT · arrives 10:03 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 2:00 PM ET · 55h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

66% chance · ±10 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
32%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
33%
1–2 hours late
20%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
5%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 29 kt, 1.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MIA that day

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.6 in of rain forecast at BNA that day

↑ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ BNA usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

BNA (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.58 in

MIA (destination) Gusts29 kt Ceiling3,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip1.25 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 323 · BNA → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?