Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 416 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 1 Tomorrow

AA 416 · MIA → JAX

departs 10:53 PM ET · arrives 12:15 AM ET

Forecast issued Sat 2:00 AM ET · 46h before departure

Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?

65% chance · ±5 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to JAX?

On time or early
32%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
15%
Cancelled
10%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 29 kt, 1.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MIA that day

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at JAX

↑ This flight has been late 43% of the time recently

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ MIA usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts29 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip1.29 in

JAX (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling3,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.23 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 416 · MIA → JAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to JAX?