AA 541 · MIA → SJU

departs 7:02 PM ET · arrives 10:51 PM AT

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 22h before departure

Arrive at SJU more than 15 minutes late?

68% chance · ±5 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SJU?

On time or early
29%
15–30 min late
26%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
9%
Cancelled
7%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 25 kt, 1.2 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MIA that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 7pm departures from MIA are often late

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ SJU usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.81 in

SJU (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.18 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 541 · MIA → SJU

Odds over time

How late will it get to SJU?