Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 610 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 1

AA 610 · DFW → LGA

departs 4:40 PM CT · arrives 9:19 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 49h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±1 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 41% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

LGA (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 610 · DFW → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?