Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 633 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 1

AA 633 · CLT → CVG

departs 8:23 PM ET · arrives 9:51 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 50h before departure

Arrive at CVG more than 15 minutes late?

42% chance · ±5 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to CVG?

On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 8pm departures from CLT are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

CVG (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility2.33333 mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 633 · CLT → CVG

Odds over time

How late will it get to CVG?