Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 845 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 1

AA 845 · BNA → CLT

departs 4:25 PM CT · arrives 6:52 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 1:00 PM ET · 53h before departure

Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±6 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to CLT?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 4pm departures from BNA are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft, 0.6 in of rain forecast at BNA that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT

↓ BNA usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

BNA (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.58 in

CLT (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 845 · BNA → CLT

Odds over time

How late will it get to CLT?