Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 860 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 1 Tomorrow

AA 860 · MIA → DFW

departs 9:56 PM ET · arrives 12:13 AM CT

Forecast issued Sat 1:00 AM ET · 46h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

64% chance · ±4 pts +9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
29%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
14%
Cancelled
20%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 29 kt, 1.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MIA that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 9pm departures from MIA are often late

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at DFW that day

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts29 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip1.29 in

DFW (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 860 · MIA → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?