AA 864 · ORD → CLT

departs 4:54 PM CT · arrives 7:56 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 23h before departure

Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?

42% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to CLT?

On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into CLT at that hour are often late

↑ 4pm departures from ORD are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

CLT (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 864 · ORD → CLT

Odds over time

How late will it get to CLT?