Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 995 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 1 Tomorrow

AA 995 · MIA → GRU

departs 10:05 PM ET · arrives 8:16 AM -03

Forecast issued Sat 1:00 AM ET · 46h before departure

Arrive at GRU more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±3 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to GRU?

On time or early
48%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
11%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 29 kt, 1.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MIA that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 10pm departures from MIA are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at GRU

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts29 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip1.29 in

GRU (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 995 · MIA → GRU

Odds over time

How late will it get to GRU?