Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1469
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
DL 1469 · MSP → CVG
departs 8:20 PM CT · arrives 11:11 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 11:00 PM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 12%
Sun 11/1
Mon 11/2 16%
Tue 11/3 18%
Wed 11/4 18%
Thu 11/5 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at CVG more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±4 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CVG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at CVG more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to CVG?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
8pm departures from MSP are often late
↑
Other factors
↓
MSP usually runs smoothly
↓
CVG usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MSP (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip none
CVG (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 2.33333 mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.