Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1584
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
DL 1584 · AUS → LAX
departs 7:00 PM CT · arrives 8:10 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 46%
Sat 10/31 24%
Sun 11/1
Mon 11/2 29%
Tue 11/3 22%
Wed 11/4 30%
Thu 11/5 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±6 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed – in 24h
–
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed – in 24h
–
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at LAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAX?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into LAX at that hour are often late
↑
LAX is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at AUS
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LAX (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 2,400 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.29 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.