Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1649
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
DL 1649 · MSP → LAX
departs 6:49 PM CT · arrives 8:48 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 52h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 31%
Sat 10/31 28%
Sun 11/1
Mon 11/2 27%
Tue 11/3 23%
Wed 11/4 22%
Thu 11/5 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±8 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed – in 24h
–
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed – in 24h
–
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at LAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAX?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into LAX at that hour are often late
↑
LAX is prone to delays
↓
MSP usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MSP
Weather at each end
MSP (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 8.66667 mi Precip none
LAX (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 2,400 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.29 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.