Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1811
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
DL 1811 · MIA → JFK
departs 7:48 PM ET · arrives 10:43 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 52h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 42%
Sun 11/1
Mon 11/2 36%
Tue 11/3 33%
Wed 11/4 31%
Thu 11/5 43%
Odds over time
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
51%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
51%
Leave 15+ late
51%
Arrive 1h+ late
21%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed – in 24h
–
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Leave MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 43% · changed – in 24h
–
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Arrive at JFK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to JFK?
On time or early
47%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 28 kt, 0.6 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MIA that day
↑
7pm departures from MIA are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MIA (origin)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling 3,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.64 in
JFK (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.