Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1964
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
DL 1964 · ORD → MSP
departs 8:34 PM CT · arrives 9:59 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 11:00 PM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 11/1
Mon 11/2 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
48%
chance · ±2 pts
−10 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
48%
Leave 15+ late
52%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 36% · changed −10 pts in 24h
−10 pts
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 48% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
52%
Yes 52%
No 48%
Arrive at MSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSP?
On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
25%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
8pm departures from ORD are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at ORD that day
↓
MSP usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
MSP (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.