Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2146
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1 Tomorrow
DL 2146 · MSP → SAN
departs 9:47 PM CT · arrives 11:30 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 1:00 AM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 11/1
Mon 11/2 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
36%
chance · ±2 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
36%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
36%
Yes 36%
No 64%
Leave MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Cloud base down to 1,400 ft, 0.6 in of rain forecast at SAN that day
↓
MSP usually runs smoothly
↓
Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at MSP that day
Weather at each end
MSP (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip none
SAN (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.56 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.