Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2264
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
DL 2264 · TPA → MSP
departs 6:37 PM ET · arrives 9:17 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 AM ET · 58h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 18%
Sun 11/1
Mon 11/2 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
4%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed – in 24h
–
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at MSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to MSP?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.7 in of rain forecast at TPA that day
↑
6pm departures from TPA are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
MSP usually runs smoothly
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 1,833 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.84 in
MSP (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 2,367 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.