Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2284
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
DL 2284 · PHX → MSP
departs 5:45 PM MT · arrives 9:42 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 61%
Sun 11/1
Mon 11/2 18%
Tue 11/3 20%
Wed 11/4 15%
Thu 11/5 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±9 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
56%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed – in 24h
–
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed – in 24h
–
56%
Yes 56%
No 44%
Arrive at MSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSP?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 1.5 in of rain forecast at PHX that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
5pm departures from PHX are often late
↓
MSP usually runs smoothly
↓
This flight has been late 17% of the time recently
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 0.6 mi Precip 1.46 in
MSP (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.