Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2594
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
DL 2594 · PHL → MSP
departs 6:57 PM ET · arrives 8:53 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 1:00 PM ET · 55h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 24%
Sat 10/31 18%
Sun 11/1
Mon 11/2 19%
Tue 11/3 23%
Wed 11/4 20%
Thu 11/5 31%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
23%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed – in 24h
–
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed – in 24h
–
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Arrive at MSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSP?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
6pm departures from PHL are often late
↑
DL's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
PHL (origin)
Gusts 3 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MSP (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 3,900 ft Visibility 9.33333 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.