Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2640
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
DL 2640 · LAX → SEA
departs 5:45 PM PT · arrives 8:27 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 51h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 42%
Sat 10/31 19%
Sun 11/1
Mon 11/2 33%
Tue 11/3 32%
Wed 11/4 33%
Thu 11/5 42%
Odds over time
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±7 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed – in 24h
–
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed – in 24h
–
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at SEA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SEA?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late
↑
5pm departures from LAX are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA
↓
0.3 in of rain forecast at LAX that day
Weather at each end
LAX (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 2,400 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.29 in
SEA (destination)
Gusts 4 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.