Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2954
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1 Tomorrow
DL 2954 · MSP → BZN
departs 10:23 PM CT · arrives 11:52 PM MT
Forecast issued Sat 4:00 AM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 11%
Sun 11/1
Tue 11/3 21%
Wed 11/4 14%
Thu 11/5 20%
Fri 11/6 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at BZN more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±3 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
7.0d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BZN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at BZN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BZN?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Visibility down to 0.6 mi forecast at BZN that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
10pm departures from MSP are often late
↓
MSP usually runs smoothly
↓
BZN usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MSP (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip none
BZN (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 0.6 mi Precip 0.25 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.