Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 574 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 1

DL 574 · MSP → SMF

departs 6:25 PM CT · arrives 8:18 PM PT

Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 50h before departure

Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±5 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SMF?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 6pm departures from MSP are often late

↑ DL's recent on-time record

↓ MSP usually runs smoothly

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MSP

Weather at each end

MSP (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SMF (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling2,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 574 · MSP → SMF

Odds over time

How late will it get to SMF?