Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 811 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 1

DL 811 · MIA → LAX

departs 6:35 PM ET · arrives 9:01 PM PT

Forecast issued Fri 12:00 PM ET · 56h before departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

58% chance · ±12 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAX?

On time or early
41%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
23%
1–2 hours late
16%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 29 kt, 1.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MIA that day

↑ 6pm departures from MIA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts29 kt Ceiling3,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip1.25 in

LAX (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling3,200 ft Visibility4.66667 mi Precip0.30 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 811 · MIA → LAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAX?