Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 8864
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1 Tomorrow
DL 8864 · MSP → IND
departs 5:02 PM CT · arrives 7:42 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · 27h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±4 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at IND more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IND?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into IND at that hour are often late
↑
5pm departures from MSP are often late
↓
MSP usually runs smoothly
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MSP (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
IND (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 2,400 ft Visibility 6.66667 mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.