Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 725 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 1

UA 725 · DEN → SNA

departs 8:32 PM MT · arrives 10:01 PM PT

Forecast issued Fri 11:00 AM ET · 60h before departure

Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±14 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SNA?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 8pm departures from DEN are often late

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↓ DEN usually runs smoothly

↓ Arrivals into SNA at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts30 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SNA (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling2,300 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.43 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 725 · DEN → SNA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SNA?