Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1085
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
WN 1085 · SFO → SAN
departs 4:51 PM PT · arrives 6:31 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 1:00 PM ET · 56h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 68%
Sun 11/1
Mon 11/2 46%
Thu 11/5 62%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
64%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
64%
Leave 15+ late
55%
Arrive 1h+ late
33%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed – in 24h
–
64%
Yes 64%
No 36%
Leave SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 48% · changed – in 24h
–
55%
Yes 55%
No 45%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
36%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
25%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
4pm departures from SFO are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 900 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.6 in of rain forecast at SAN that day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SFO (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 3,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
SAN (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.63 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.