Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1188
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
WN 1188 · LAS → SAN
departs 8:03 PM PT · arrives 9:19 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 53h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sat 10/31 39%
Sun 11/1
Tue 11/3 31%
Wed 11/4 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
68%
chance · ±7 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
68%
Leave 15+ late
64%
Arrive 1h+ late
26%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
7.0d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 46% · changed – in 24h
–
68%
Yes 68%
No 32%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 55% · changed – in 24h
–
64%
Yes 64%
No 36%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
31%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
31%
1–2 hours late
20%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late
↓
Gusts to 28 kt, cloud base down to 1,400 ft forecast at LAS that day
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling 1,700 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.13 in
SAN (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.44 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.