Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2438
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
WN 2438 · MSP → BNA
departs 5:41 PM CT · arrives 7:49 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 11:00 PM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±3 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
43%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
43%
Yes 43%
No 57%
Arrive at BNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BNA?
On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
23%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into BNA at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
MSP usually runs smoothly
↓
BNA usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MSP (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip none
BNA (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 1,400 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.32 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.