Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2585
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
WN 2585 · LGB → SMF
departs 7:25 PM PT · arrives 9:00 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 11:00 PM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 21%
Sun 11/1
Mon 11/2 25%
Tue 11/3 18%
Wed 11/4 18%
Thu 11/5 33%
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±7 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave LGB more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into SMF at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
↓
0.3 in of rain forecast at LGB that day
Weather at each end
LGB (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.34 in
SMF (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.