Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2585
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31 Tomorrow
WN 2585 · LGB → SMF
departs 6:25 PM PT · arrives 8:03 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 23h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 23%
Sat 10/31
Sun 11/1 33%
Mon 11/2 25%
Tue 11/3 18%
Wed 11/4 18%
Thu 11/5 33%
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±4 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave LGB more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into SMF at that hour are often late
↓
LGB usually runs smoothly
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
LGB (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.10 in
SMF (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.