Schedule: FAA flight plans.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2585 PROBABLY LANDED (THE FAA HASN'T CONFIRMED THE LANDING TIME)

Friday, October 30 Today

WN 2585 · LGB → SMF

took off 7:00 PM PT · probably landed (not confirmed) (scheduled 6:55 PM PT → 8:30 PM PT)

Forecast issued Fri 11:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±1 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SMF?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into SMF at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

↓ LGB usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

LGB (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

SMF (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2585 · LGB → SMF

Odds over time

How late will it get to SMF?