Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2789
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1 Tomorrow
WN 2789 · MCO → RDU
departs 8:50 PM ET · arrives 10:44 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 4:00 AM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 11/1
Mon 11/2 30%
Thu 11/5 39%
Fri 11/6 36%
Odds over time
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
56%
chance · ±2 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
56%
Leave 15+ late
59%
Arrive 1h+ late
21%
Cancelled
4%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
56%
Yes 56%
No 44%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 43% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
59%
Yes 59%
No 41%
Arrive at RDU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to RDU?
On time or early
42%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 28 kt, cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.6 in of rain forecast at MCO that day
↑
8pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.46 in
RDU (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.