Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 26, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2789
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 2
WN 2789 · MCO → RDU
departs 9:35 PM ET · arrives 11:30 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 5:00 AM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 11/1 56%
Mon 11/2
Thu 11/5 39%
Fri 11/6 36%
Odds over time
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed – in 24h
–
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed – in 24h
–
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at RDU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to RDU?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
9pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.53 in
RDU (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.