Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4029
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1 Tomorrow
WN 4029 · MSY → DCA
departs 8:21 PM CT · arrives 12:02 AM ET
Forecast issued Sat 5:00 AM ET · 41h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
34%
chance · ±1 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
34%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Leave MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 44% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
21%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This flight has been late 31% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
↓
MSY usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MSY (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.08 in
DCA (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 11,333 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.