Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4058
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1 Tomorrow
WN 4058 · MDW → HOU
departs 9:20 PM CT · arrives 11:56 PM CT
Forecast issued Sat 7:00 AM ET · 40h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 11/1
Mon 11/2 44%
Thu 11/5 38%
Fri 11/6 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±3 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
51%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 52% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Arrive at HOU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to HOU?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
9pm departures from MDW are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MDW
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 2,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
HOU (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.