Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 26, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4058
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 2
WN 4058 · MDW → HOU
departs 9:30 PM CT · arrives 12:12 AM CT
Forecast issued Sat 8:00 AM ET · 64h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 11/1 39%
Mon 11/2
Thu 11/5 38%
Fri 11/6 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
45%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
45%
Leave 15+ late
52%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed – in 24h
–
45%
Yes 45%
No 55%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 44% · changed – in 24h
–
52%
Yes 52%
No 48%
Arrive at HOU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to HOU?
On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
9pm departures from MDW are often late
↑
Arrivals into HOU at that hour are often late
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
MDW usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.01 in
HOU (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.