Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4257
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1 Tomorrow
WN 4257 · DEN → RNO
departs 9:30 PM MT · arrives 10:45 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 6:00 AM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 11/1
Mon 11/2 58%
Tue 11/3 35%
Wed 11/4 25%
Thu 11/5 45%
Fri 11/6 43%
Odds over time
Arrive at RNO more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±9 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
52%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
7.0d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RNO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 48% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
52%
Yes 52%
No 48%
Arrive at RNO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to RNO?
On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
9pm departures from DEN are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
DEN usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 34 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
RNO (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 1,933 ft Visibility 4.33333 mi Precip 0.09 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.