Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 26, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4257
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 2
WN 4257 · DEN → RNO
departs 8:50 PM MT · arrives 10:11 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 6:00 AM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 11/1 46%
Mon 11/2
Tue 11/3 35%
Wed 11/4 25%
Thu 11/5 45%
Fri 11/6 43%
Odds over time
Arrive at RNO more than 15 minutes late?
58%
chance · ±11 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
58%
Leave 15+ late
60%
Arrive 1h+ late
22%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
7.0d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RNO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed – in 24h
–
58%
Yes 58%
No 42%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed – in 24h
–
60%
Yes 60%
No 40%
Arrive at RNO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to RNO?
On time or early
42%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
17%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 45 kt, cloud base down to 1,400 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at DEN that day
↑
8pm departures from DEN are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RNO
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 45 kt Ceiling 1,400 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.04 in
RNO (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.